# Lazybones: model workings

How every dollar figure in the Lazybones Search & AI strategy report (20 October 2026) was built,
step by step, so you or your own AI assistant can recompute it. The market, the clicks and the share
are **non-branded** and **Australian**. The value of a click comes from **Shopify** (Attribution > Channels,
Google Search organic, last non-direct click, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026), scaled to non-branded Australian
search with the split measured in GA4. It covers the **retail store only**: wholesale (about A$0.5M a
year, client-stated) is a B2B channel and sits outside the search model. Every headline dollar is **gross**
(Shopify sales, before returns), in AUD; net figures remove the **6.72%** of gross sales Shopify
records as returned.

## 1. The inputs, and where each one comes from

| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Measured keyword core | 140,915 searches / month | Google Keyword Planner, SEMrush and Ahrefs for Australia, median of three, October 2026. Core = terms you sell with direct buying intent; plural and word-order variants counted once. The full measured basket is 582,155 / month |
| Long-tail factor | x 1.35 | Standard Team Empathy uplift from the measured core to the long tail around it |
| Winnable click share | 20% of searches | The share of searches that end in an organic click once ads, shopping carousels and AI answers take theirs |
| Australian clicks, all | 66,863 a year | Search Console, https://lazybones.com.au/, 18 Oct 2025 to 17 Oct 2026, country = Australia |
| Branded Australian clicks (excluded) | 39,713 a year (59.4%) | Queries containing Lazybones, Lazy Bones or a misspelling (laxybones, lazy bines, lazy bomes) or a truncation (lazy clothing, bones clothing) |
| Non-branded Australian clicks today | 27,141 a year | 7,855 on named non-branded queries + 19,286 on queries Google withholds (long tail, counted as non-branded) |
| Shopify Google Search organic | 69,696 sessions, 2,032 orders, A$382,495.78 | Shopify Attribution > Channels, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, last non-direct click, all markets, branded and non-branded together: conversion 2.9155%, order value A$188.24 |
| GA4 non-branded / blended ratios | conversion x 0.8106, order value x 0.9369 | GA4 non-branded Australian Google organic (1.7357%, A$179.40; split in section 5) / GA4 Google organic all markets (2.1411%, A$191.49) |
| Non-branded conversion rate (Shopify basis) | 2.3635% (shown as 2.36%) | 2.9155% x 0.8106: derived from Shopify + GA4 split |
| Non-branded order value (Shopify basis) | A$176.3568 (shown as A$176.36) | A$188.24 x 0.9369: derived from Shopify + GA4 split |
| Shopify visits per Search Console click | 0.9334 (shown as 0.93) | 69,696 Shopify Google organic sessions / 74,668 Search Console clicks (both all markets), so visits and conversion share one basis |
| Value per non-branded click | A$3.8906 (shown as A$3.89) | Conversion rate x visits per click x order value |
| First-order share | 47.1% | Shopify Google Search organic: 958 new-customer orders / 2032 orders (all markets, branded and non-branded) |
| Return rate | 6.72% | MEASURED: Shopify returns A$83,494.93 / gross sales A$1,241,864.37, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, all channels |

## 2. The market chain

1. 140,915 x 1.35 x 12 = **2,282,823 searches / year**
2. x 0.2 = **456,565 winnable organic clicks / year** (38,047 a month)
3. 27,141 / 456,565 = **5.94% share today** (shown as 5.9%)
4. 1% of the pool = **4,566 clicks / year** = 100.7 orders = **A$17,763 gross / year** (A$16,569 net of Shopify's 6.7% returns)

For context, the full Australian category, sized from Ahrefs' keyword universe (24 seeds) plus
DataForSEO (9 seeds), each scaled to the triangulated basis by the basket's own ratio and with the
long tail, is about 963,507 searches a month. The model uses only the measured core.

## 3. The scenarios

Each case grows the share of the winnable pool; the value per click is held at today's measured figure.
Revenue = share x 456,565 x A$3.8906. Orders = clicks x 0.9334 visits per click x 2.3635%.

| Case | Share | Clicks / yr | Orders / yr | New customers / yr | Non-branded revenue / yr (gross) | New revenue / yr (gross) | New revenue / yr (net of returns) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 5.9% | 27,141 | 599 | 282 | A$105,594 | - | - |
| Conservative | 9.0% | 41,091 | 906 | 427 | A$159,866 | +A$54,272 | +A$50,624 |
| Mid | 15.0% | 68,485 | 1,511 | 712 | A$266,444 | +A$160,850 | +A$150,036 |
| High | 22.0% | 100,444 | 2,216 | 1,045 | A$390,785 | +A$285,191 | +A$266,017 |

Conservative, mid and high are 9%, 15% and 22% of the pool. "New revenue" is the rounded case minus
the rounded today figure. The today row prices the measured clicks: 27,141 x A$3.8906 = A$105,594.

**Reconciling Today with GA4:** GA4 attributes A$92,923 to the same non-branded Australian clicks (section 5).
The Shopify-based Today is 13.6% higher. On the same channel Shopify credits Google organic with
A$382,496 against GA4's A$339,317 (12.7% more; 2,032 orders vs 1,772), because Shopify uses last
non-direct click and records orders GA4 misses. The gap is in line with that channel difference (within two percentage points).

## 4. The value ladder (new customers only, Shopify cohorts)

The scenario table counts every non-branded order, first and repeat. The ladder counts only the new
customers each case brings (orders x 47.1%), so repeat revenue is never counted twice.

- **First-order value: A$178.48.** Shopify customer cohorts, store-wide, month 0: A$190.50 per customer (2,878 customers), x 0.9369 (the same non-branded order-value ratio used for the order value in section 1).
- **12-month value: A$209.68.** Same cohorts, cumulative to month 11: A$223.80 store-wide (the October 2025 cohort alone is at A$227), x 0.9369.
- **No lifetime figure.** Shopify's cohort grid stops at month 11, so nothing past twelve months is measured and none is shown. Google organic takes 1.12 returning-customer orders for every new one, so value likely continues past a year.
- Ladder figures are gross; net of returns each is 6.7% lower.

| Case | New customers / yr | First-order revenue / yr (gross) | 12-month value / yr (gross) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 282 | A$50,382 | A$59,188 |
| Conservative | 427 | A$76,277 | A$89,610 |
| Mid | 712 | A$127,128 | A$149,350 |
| High | 1,045 | A$186,454 | A$219,047 |

## 5. How the branded / non-branded split was made (GA4)

GA4 does not label orders branded or non-branded, so its Australian Google organic figures (Organic Search, source google; A$320,091.95) were split with two measured inputs:

1. Branded share of Australian organic visits = Search Console's branded share of Australian clicks (59.4%).
2. Branded visits convert 1.538x better than non-branded and order 1.087x larger, read from GA4 (Australian Google organic visits landing on the homepage, where branded searches land, against every other landing page, twelve months).
3. Solved so orders and revenue add back to GA4 exactly: branded 1165.0 orders / A$227,169 at 2.669%; non-branded 518.0 orders / A$92,923 at 1.736%.

Only the RATIOS from this split reach the model (non-branded Australian conversion and order value relative to GA4's
Google organic channel); the rate itself is Shopify's. Cross-check: GA4's direct landing-page revenue split puts non-branded at
45.9%; the model builds on the lower, branded-click figure.

## 6. The compounding curve (mid case arriving)

0%, 10%, 35%, 70% and 100% of the mid case's new revenue (A$160,850) live at today, month 3, month 6, month 9 and month 12.

| Point | Non-branded gross / yr |
|---|---|
| Today | A$105,594 |
| Month 3 | A$121,679 |
| Month 6 | A$161,892 |
| Month 9 | A$218,189 |
| Month 12 | A$266,444 |

## 7. Smell tests run before publishing

- The derived non-branded rate (2.36%) sits below Shopify's blended Google organic rate (2.92%), and in GA4 non-branded converts below branded (1.736% vs 2.669%).
- The home market converts above the secondary one: GA4 organic Australia 2.29% vs New Zealand 1.28%. Only Australia is modelled.
- Twelve-month windows on every input (no seasonal slice): Shopify Oct 2025 to Sep 2026; Search Console and GA4 18 Oct 2025 to 17 Oct 2026 (about two weeks offset).
- Visits and conversion are on one basis: Shopify sessions with Shopify's conversion rate. GA4's own visits-per-click figure (1.18) is not mixed with Shopify's rate.
- The high case (8,370 non-branded clicks a month) stays under the smallest comparable Australian store's estimated organic traffic (DataForSEO, about 42,298 a month).

## 8. What the model leaves out (all upside)

- **AI prompts.** The AI-chat questions in the library are counted separately and not priced.
- **Offshore demand.** About 10% of your Google clicks come from outside Australia; none of it is modelled, and the UK storefront is future scope.
- **Adjacent demand.** Broad terms you sell into with mixed intent (quilt covers, wall art, long sleeve dresses, gifts for mum) sit outside the core.
- **Value past twelve months.** Not measured by Shopify's cohort grid, so not counted.
- **Conversion improvement.** Held flat at today's figure.

## 9. Known limitations

- Shopify's Google organic row is all markets and blends branded with non-branded; the GA4 split converts it to non-branded Australia, so the derived rate inherits the GA4 split method (section 5).
- The cohort values and the first-order share are store-wide or channel-wide, not non-branded-Australia specific.
- The Search Console query-by-country export is capped at 50,000 rows, so a small share of named Australian clicks sits in the withheld remainder (counted as non-branded).